AI Release Gate

Gate decisions

Every decision the gate has made, from its append-only ledger. A candidate passes a suite only when the lower bound of the 95% interval for its difference from the baseline stays above minus the suite's margin. Records are content-addressed: the same comparison under the same spec is the same id.

e3fdc06fa056e927 blocked 2026-09-20T00:40:46Z

2026-09/openweights-control → 2026-09-run2/openweights-control, spec drift-blocks (1b6d78c7491b)

SuiteVerdictItemsBaselineCandidateDifference (95% CI)MarginReason
closed_form_reasoningblock12096.7%95.0%-1.7 (-5.0 to +1.7)3%cannot rule out a 3% drop: -1.7% (-5.0% to +1.7%) over 120 items, 3 worse and 1 better (p 0.222, Holm 0.222)
multiple_choicewarn10082.0%83.0%+1.0 (+0.0 to +3.0)3%100 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
instruction_followingwarn6095.0%96.7%+1.7 (+0.0 to +5.0)3%60 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
structured_extractionwarn2095.0%95.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%20 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
structured_extraction_heldoutwarn2090.0%90.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%20 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
refusal_calibrationwarn4092.5%95.0%+2.5 (+0.0 to +7.5)3%40 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
long_context_recallwarn20100.0%100.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%20 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
paraphrase_robustnesswarn4095.0%97.5%+2.5 (+0.0 to +7.5)3%40 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only

16d849d843b034f3 passed 2026-09-20T00:40:41Z

2026-09/anthropic-alias → 2026-09-run2/anthropic-alias, spec drift-blocks (1b6d78c7491b)

SuiteVerdictItemsBaselineCandidateDifference (95% CI)MarginReason
closed_form_reasoningpass120100.0%100.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%non-inferior: +0.0% (+0.0% to +0.0%) over 120 items stays above -3% (p 0.000, Holm 0.000)
multiple_choicewarn10093.0%92.0%-1.0 (-5.0 to +2.0)3%100 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
instruction_followingwarn6095.0%95.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%60 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
structured_extractionwarn2090.0%90.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%20 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
structured_extraction_heldoutwarn2085.0%85.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%20 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
refusal_calibrationwarn4085.0%85.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%40 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
long_context_recallwarn20100.0%100.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%20 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only
paraphrase_robustnesswarn40100.0%100.0%+0.0 (+0.0 to +0.0)3%40 paired items, fewer than the 118 needed to see a 3% drop at 80% power: under-powered, warns only